This week, one of the world’s largest fossil fuel exporters attended a meeting of island nations severely affected by man-made climate change.
Or, to put it more conventionally, Australian leaders attended the annual Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga.
Since 1971, this forum has been the most important diplomatic meeting of the Pacific states, including Australia and New Zealand. This year, against the backdrop of geopolitical maneuvers and unrest in New Caledonia, security was on the agenda. But one topic in particular made itself felt: climate change.
At the opening of the forum, UN Secretary-General António Guterres made this clear:
There is a huge injustice in the Pacific and that is why I am here (…) The small islands do not contribute to climate change, but everything that happens because of climate change is multiplied here.
Australia is treading a difficult path at the summit. It is not enough to point to our domestic progress on green energy. Our neighbours are focused on Australia’s emergence as the second largest exporter of fossil fuel emissions and the steady development of new gas and coal fields. Even as Australia’s climate and migration pact with Tuvalu came into force, Tuvalu’s climate minister Maina Talia called for an end to “immoral and unacceptable” actions such as opening new mines, maintaining fossil fuel subsidies and exporting fossil fuels.
Australian leaders hope to co-host the world’s most important climate talks with Pacific island nations in 2026. While some Pacific leaders oppose co-hosting without an Australian commitment to halt new greenhouse gas and gas projects, others see it as an opportunity for Australia to show that it is truly part of the “Pacific family”.
What happened in the forum?
A major theme of this year’s forum was the Falepili Union, an agreement between Australia and Tuvalu signed last year that comes into force at the forum. Minister for International Development and the Pacific Pat Conroy said it was the
most significant agreement between Australia and one of its Pacific partners since the independence agreements of Papua New Guinea in 1975.
The agreement allows 280 Tuvaluans to move to Australia each year, while committing Australia to funding climate adaptation and disaster relief efforts on the islands. Importantly, Australia will also recognise Tuvalu’s statehood – even if the country collapses due to climate change.
In return, Tuvalu and Australia will enter into any agreements affecting Tuvalu’s security or defence “jointly”. This effectively gives Australia extraordinary power to block any actions by Tuvalu that it believes do not serve its regional interests. This is significant as China seeks to expand its influence in the Pacific.
The leaders’ summit on Thursday is expected to discuss the joint bid to host the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, but this is not guaranteed as Turkey has also applied. Pacific leaders have made clear they will push Australia to go beyond efforts to reduce local emissions.
What else could we see?
Analysts have been closely monitoring the stance of New Zealand politicians on the forum. While New Zealand has very close ties to the Pacific and actively supports climate adaptation work in many Pacific states, there are signs that the new right-wing government is moving away from national climate efforts.
At the forum, New Zealand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters attracted attention for downplaying the human contribution to climate change and claiming that the size of some Pacific islands was actually growing.
Do the island states agree? Not on everything. But when it comes to climate, they have learned the importance of speaking with one voice. In recent years, Pacific states have become the new face of climate diplomacy. At the 2022 climate talks in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Pacific states were visible and successful in their efforts to achieve better commitments to finance losses and damages from climate change.
Pacific expert George Carter this week described the effective Pacific approach, calling on Australia to become more active as a member of the Pacific family while urging us to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.
Pacific leaders have repeatedly said they are prepared to switch their allegiances to other countries if their rhetoric is not translated into action at the highest levels. In 2019, former Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama claimed that Australia’s Morrison government’s climate dovishness was pushing Pacific states closer to China.
This is because adapting to sea level rise is costly and Pacific countries are small.
Vanuatu, for example, was the first country to calculate how much it would cost to adapt to climate change. The answer: AUD 260 million by 2030 just to respond to loss and damage. Phasing out fossil fuels and decarbonising the country would cost an additional AUD 1.75 billion in addition to adaptation projects – a staggering sum for a small country.
Vanuatu is already the country most affected by disasters, and faces the challenge of protecting the coasts and relocating villages.
Fiji has so far undertaken six climate-related relocations. According to the government, 42 more require immediate assistance and another 800 will soon require support. Without external funding, the need will soon exceed what the government can provide.
What happens next?
For the Pacific, climate change is everything. When Guterres spoke about moving away from fossil fuels, many observers understood this as a comment directed at Australia.
Australia is unlikely to be able to keep the Pacific on its side with bilateral agreements, regional policing initiatives or by pointing to national efforts to go green and later achieve net zero. For the Pacific, the future is now. Climate change is lapping at its shores and promises of the future are worth little.