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China Brief: Jake Sullivan visits Beijing

Welcome to Foreign policy‘s China Brief. I’m Lili Pike, a staff writer covering China. I’m filling in for James Palmer while he’s away this week.

This week’s highlights: China seeks to maintain momentum with the US as US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan visits Beijing, Canada announces Tariffs for electric vehicles on China to match those of the United States, and China is suspending permits for new steel plants – Good news for the climate.


What does China want from Jake Sullivan?

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan began a three-day visit to Beijing on Tuesday. The trip to the Chinese capital follows trips by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other Cabinet members since the resumption of US-China diplomatic relations in November 2022.

Sullivan has met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi four times around the world, but perhaps the culinary reception he received from his colleagues persuaded him to make the trip to China. As for the menu on his trip, it is rather limited: A senior White House official told reporters last Friday that the goal of the visit was to “clear up misunderstandings and prevent this competition from degenerating into conflict.”

At the same time, U.S. officials are aiming to make further progress on certain areas of cooperation before the end of U.S. President Joe Biden’s term. In recent weeks, Chinese officials visited Washington to discuss fentanyl, and U.S. Treasury officials traveled to Shanghai. John Podesta, Biden’s international climate envoy, will also travel to China soon.

Republicans have criticized the Biden administration’s China talks as a wasted effort – a diplomatic performance without substance. Still, the engagement has borne some fruit for the U.S.: China has committed to setting broader climate goals and tackling potent emissions beyond carbon dioxide, taken action against three fentanyl precursors, and resumed military communications.

What is less clear is what Beijing has gained from the diplomacy. In 2022, China was motivated to re-establish relations with the US, at least in part in the hope of boosting its struggling economy. But meetings with Washington have not exactly provided a lifeline for the economy. The Biden administration has maintained tariffs introduced under former US President Donald Trump and imposed new restrictions on technology exports to China.

The meetings have nevertheless brought more stability to US-China relations, which Beijing values, experts said. “I don’t think they see it as a failure because no matter what happens, it’s still better than the Trump years, right? There was no free fall,” said Yun Sun, China director at the Stimson Center, pointing to renewed communication between the forces as an example of improved stability.

With Sullivan’s visit and a possible meeting between Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year on the sidelines of the G-20 or Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, will China try to gain some diplomatic advantages before facing a possible second Trump term?

In a press conference ahead of the trip, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said Beijing would continue to build on the “substantive and constructive” meetings with Sullivan while pressuring Washington on areas of concern, including the “unreasonable measures” the Biden administration has taken against China on economic issues. “China demands that the United States stop politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues,” the ministry statement said.

However, progress is expected to remain limited. “At this point, the Chinese see the Biden administration as one that is holding the fort before the election,” Sun said. “So I think the Chinese are less enthusiastic about negotiating a major deal with the Biden administration if they are not offered anything really attractive in return.”

At the very least, China aims to maintain momentum in bilateral relations as political tides change in the U.S., said Da Wei, a professor of international relations at Tsinghua University. The fact that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls than Biden “makes cooperation with the Biden administration more valuable … because we believe that a future Harris administration will show much more continuity than change,” he said.

While it is unclear what role Sullivan would play in a potential Harris administration, China is also likely interested in continuing to invest in its relationship with him personally.

“From what I understand, the prevailing view among Chinese elites is that Sullivan’s policies and political influence will continue for quite some time, even as President Biden nears the end of his political career,” said Jing Qian, executive director of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.


What we pursue

Trade war with China is escalating. On Monday, Canada announced it would follow the U.S. with new 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric car imports. This support will help the U.S. close a potential legal loophole that allows Chinese automakers to access the U.S. market through the two countries’ free trade agreement while U.S. automakers develop their own electric car models.

Canada’s announcement comes as the European Union finalizes its own lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Tariffs on Chinese goods are also gaining popularity outside of close U.S. allies – from Turkey to Indonesia. What’s the reason for the rush to build trade walls? In recent years, China has relied heavily on state-backed manufacturing to offset a slump in its real estate market.

A remarkable statistic: “Loans to industry, including manufacturing, have increased by 63% since the end of 2021, while Chinese banks have sharply reduced their lending to real estate developers,” the Wall Street Journal recently reported.

This manufacturing boom has created massive overcapacity, leading to a surge in exports and a global backlash. Beijing is fighting back against the wave of tariffs with investigations into possible retaliatory tariffs. But the global backlash could ultimately push Beijing to double down on its efforts to increase consumption to boost economic growth alongside manufacturing.

Good climate news. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced last week that it would suspend the issuing of permits for new steel plants. Steel is responsible for 15 percent of China’s carbon emissions, so greening the industry is crucial to the country’s climate progress. China had already stopped issuing permits for coal-based steel production this year.

According to recent policy papers, China could reduce its emissions in the steel sector by the equivalent of the EU’s total steel emissions by 2025, wrote the Helsinki-based Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA).

In addition, Chinese provinces are increasingly moving away from coal-fired power plants after a recent construction boom. CREA has found that permits for new coal-fired power plants have fallen by more than 80 percent since last year, likely due to China’s expansion of renewable energy. Some experts predict that China’s emissions could peak this year if this trend continues.


Pop Quiz

1. Which country’s airspace was entered by a Chinese military aircraft for the first time this week?

2. What is the latest Chinese internet buzzword to describe young people with no prospects? (Hint: It is related to the housing crisis.)

3. Which famous Taiwanese restaurant chain just announced that it will close more than a dozen locations in China after opening a branch in New York City?

Scroll down for the answers.


FP’s most read articles this week


A bit of culture

The Southern Song dynasty poet and statesman Lu You (1125-1210) never had much success in office, moving from one minor post to another and advocating the politically unpopular and militarily unfeasible position that the remnants of the Song dynasty should drive the Jurchen-led Jin dynasty from the north.

Lu’s concern for the fate of the nation is clearly expressed in his surviving works, but his poems about the details of everyday life – including his cats – have proven more enduring.—Brendan O’Kane, translator

“I got a cat in a nearby village, named her Snowball and wrote this poem about her for fun.”
By Lu You

Like a tiger, if he could climb a tree,
Or a foal that didn’t want to pull a cart,
So determined to use his mouse
That he has no time for fish.

He loses himself in catnip and opportunity,
and every night he keeps my blankets warm—
He must have been my servant in a previous life,
Accompanies me through old age and through wilderness.

“For Pinknose”
By Lu You

My cat spends her nights tearing apart mice.
With her shaggy neck and spitting blood, she guards the grain.
During the day she is a palace lady through and through –
Full of fish and sleeping on silk pillows.


And the answers are …

1. Japan

A Chinese surveillance plane briefly entered Japanese airspace over the uninhabited Danjo Islands in the southwest of the country on Monday, sparking criticism. The Danjo Islands are closer to Japan’s main islands than the Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands and over which it is challenging Japan in a territorial dispute.

2. 烂尾娃 or children with lazy tails

The term refers to so-called “rotten-tailed buildings,” millions of Chinese homes that have been abandoned after investment and partial completion due to the real estate crisis. In this case, the graduates have spent years being educated in the pressure cooker of Chinese society and now have to face an unforgiving job market.

3. Din Tai Fung

Apparently China’s economic downturn is also having an impact on the market for high-quality dumplings: the restaurant is closing 14 branches in China. The FP team assures Din Tai Fung that there is plenty of appetite for its dumplings in Washington.

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